Triple CME M9-class toward Earth – Impact on Earth is likely to be Major!

Aug 4, 2011

This morning’s M9-class eruption propelled a CME toward Earth.

Moving at an estimated speed of 1950 km/s, the cloud is expected to sweep up two earlier CMEs already en route.

Analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab say the combined triple-CME should reach Earth on August 5th at 13:55 UT plus or minus 7 hours. “The impact on Earth is likely to be major: the estimated maximum geomagnetic activity index level Kp is 7 (Kp ranges from 0 – 9). The flanks of the CME may also impact STEREO A, Mars and Mercury/MESSENGER.” Spaceweather

Source and author: Spaceweather *   (youtube)

6 responses to “Triple CME M9-class toward Earth – Impact on Earth is likely to be Major!

  1. here we go weve got flares coming quite regulary now and seems to be intensifying or isnt it?

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  2. The flare cant be that serious or there would be announcements in the media advising people that local power grids may be switched off etc as this would be necessary if the CME was really powerful.

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    • dont worry about this one, when the news reports it then you have to worry. What alot of these articles dont take into account is the distance that the CME has to travel before hitting us, in that time the earth has moved out of harms way and continues on like every other day

      Luke

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  3. NASA Spokesperson, Susan Hendrix of the Heliophysics Science Division says that the latest computer models indicate that Earth will receive only a glancing blow during this solar storm. Hendrix said that these flares would have had a significant impact on Earth if they hit it directly, but the current models suggest that the only noticeable impact might be visible auroras as far south as the extreme northern portion of the United States.

    Concerns about a threat to solar satellite observatory Stereo A located ahead of Earth in orbit around the Sun have also been reduced as the latest models indicate that the bulk of the ‘horseshoe’ shaped cloud of solar material will travel between the Earth and Stereo A.

    All of the recent solar flares have erupted from the solar sunspot labeled ‘1261’ and more could occur from this region; however, the Sun’s rotation is taking the solar sunspot toward the eastern rim of the Sun and will not be facing Earth in a few days. The Sun is in a new Solar Maximum period that has only had one sunspot free day in 2011, compared to 51 sunspot free days in 2010 and 260 days in 2009.

    Read more: http://technorati.com/technology/article/major-series-of-solar-flares-to/#ixzz1U6XdToNW

    Time will tell!

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  4. I really find it strange that there’s not more info on the actual threat value/assessment of what to expect from a solar storm of this size.

    I’m an amateur astronomer and solar photographer and indeed, these incoming CMEs are true. What gets me is that there is very minimal information on whether it’s enough to expect a geomagnetic storm that could cause power outages and the like. I did find suggestions of radio blackouts and satellite disruptions, but these were posted before the M9.3 eruption.

    It may be a mute point by now because of the uncertainty of the exact time of impact, but if anyone has additional info, I’d like to hear it

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  5. I heard about this in the wee hours of this morning (8/5) on Coast to Coast. So far I have told two people. If nothing at all happens I am gonna feel like a frakken dupe!

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